There are a host of engineering-style tradeoffs involved in action.
One that recieves no attention is the time factor. The longer one is in the field and the more actions one performs, the more certain rare events become.
Imagine flipping a fair coin. The probability of flipping a heads is, on average, 50%.
What is the probability of flipping 10 heads in a row?
Relatively low. (1/2) to the 10th power equals 1 in 1024 flips, on average.
If we flip the coin for a short period, getting 10 heads would be rare. HOWEVER, if we flip that coin for tens of thousands of trials, we would almost certainly come across such a result.
Most WNs get caught their first time out, because they go for too much. A few will “climb the ladder” and reach a level where they can get away with it by skill.
…but even being skilled, the time factor operates independently. The longer one operates, the more likely one will come across black swans.
Anyone can get caught. This tradeoff involves the recognition that one must stay sharp and never get too arrogant.