Reading Minds

by Ryu

A few years ago, I worked a project with an associate. The goal was to play poker online, and determine if one could actually make a living at it.

You can. I took me a year to go from bad to being able to win slightly. The next step was winning alot often and going pro. The big limiting factor is bankroll. Earning about 1% every few days was my return, and I felt confident at that risk level.

Being able to read people’s minds is like poker. You have to be able to tell a story with what someone is doing. There’s a logic and consistency to human action. A reason for everything.

The discipline is not making a move, until you know ……what’s going on. Don’t get lucky, don’t improvise. You can’t rely on luck. You must sit and figure it out, until you know the shot, no matter how long that takes.

This ability has saved me many times in real life. As always, it is 99% preparation, 1% actual action. The quality of the preparation and forethought determines what you get out the other end.

In poker, there are four levels of thought, from easy to hard. First, what I should do. Second, what the other guy will do. Third, what the other guy thinks I’ll do. Fourth, what the other guy thinks I think he’ll do. Him anticipating me anticipating him.

There’s not as much trickery as one might expect. Most people are self-centered. Basics, basics. If you can think about what the other guy wants, this puts you far ahead of most.

2 Comments to “Reading Minds”

  1. The initial bankroll would be the stumbling block for most. This is almost another area where the MGTOW/PUA crowds might be useful in finding the 1 or 2 worthwhile people to train, as they are looking for ways to make money outside of the system… but not really.

    It’s not really gambling once you understand the game. I’ve found that I learned more losing hands than I did winning- it’s a universal thing amongst games of any sort. Then i learned the value of “throwing” bad hands early just to get a gauge on my opponents. Yes, you’ll go down money early, but once you get a grasp of someone’s risk aversion- or lack thereof- you can adjust your own accordingly.

    1% ROI every couple days sounds pretty good if your initial investment is high enough.

    • As you play longer and longer, improbable events become more likely. That 1 in a million situation starts coming. Long losing streaks. Bad beats. This is not true only for gambling.

      Squeezing out a profit is only good if you have long money. One has to be properly capitalized.

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